Personal predictions and expectations for the 2014 World Cup

Are you excited for the 2014 World Cup yet? I am. The qualifying started in June 2011, a full three years before the actual event. The teams in South America and Europe will start their long qualification runs later this year and selection of the final 32 spots will be made by November 2013.

I look at this as more than just a soccer event, however. What are some things that are going to happen?

1. Overall FIFA dislike

We will certainly see local vendors and event sponsors get frustrated  with FIFA once they learn how restrictive the rules are. Trying to make a buck without FIFA’s stamp of approval can be a tough challenge, something business owners in Germany and South Africa have become all too familiar with.

FIFA is also in the line of fire for various corruption scandals and this topic will linger around. Unfortunately, I don’t see the current FIFA management doing any thorough house cleaning since they’d eliminate themselves, which creates a bit of a challenge for potential sponsors: Are you willing to ignore these charges and play along or do you draw the line and “go rogue”? “Going rogue” would mean not supporting a corrupt organization but instead being the good guy and finding ways to be part of the event through indirect channels.

There is a huge disparity between how FIFA would like to be viewed by the public and how they are actually perceived. The power to close that gap, however, is not with the public.

2. Must have Penta or else…

There will be huge hype about the Brazilian team. They will be an automatic favorite and many Brazilians want nothing else from their team than the “Penta” (sixth World Cup) from them.

Personally I don’t like when home teams win the World Cup. Germany coming in as a 3rd in 2006 was perfect. They stayed in the tournament until the very end but Italy got to take the Cup with them. I think it takes away from being a good host to win the tournament and it also leaves a bit of an aftertaste since the advantage of having the crowd behind them has to be weighted in.

At the end being a star in Brazil can be quite a curse. If you help winning the cup you have fulfilled your duty. Anything but that turns you into a loser. People tend to forget that this is one of the hardest titles to win in the whole world of sports and nearly everyone is after it.

Who will win? The beauty of this game is that potentially weaker teams have a realistic chance to beat the big dogs on a good day. Just like previous World Cups, this event will be full of upsets. We know that Brazil will be in it, because they are qualified as the host country. Everything else is up for grabs.

3. Revenue? Yes of course

It is a safe be to say that FIFA will make more money from TV contracts and ads than ever. The only question is how the numbers will compare to Germany and South Africa.

I expect most of the games to be sold out. FIFA’s ticket prices have been exorbitant but I think we’ll see the stadiums being filled for almost all games. The World Cup will be a reason for many tourists to visit the country. Brazil will draw more tourists than South Africa did in 2010 and potentially even more than came to Germany in 2006. I expect the stadiums to be at least 95% full.

4. The best World Cup for some time to come

The last two World Cups have seen great street festivities but I’d expect Brazil to top that. It will be the World Cup with the most street festivities for quite some time to come. How can Russia or Qatar measure up with girls dancing samba in the streets? I think we all agree on that.

We will hear loud drums in Brazil but no Vuvuzela’s. Drums are part of the traditional fan culture, especially in Brazil and we won’t see any of the global fan outrage we had in 2010.

I think it will be the biggest World Cup we’ve ever seen and it will hold that title for some years to come. Brazil is a dynamic fast growing country. It is one of the biggest soccer nations in the world. It is a perfect candidate. Of course there is talk about construction being behind schedule but I don’t think anyone doubts that Brazil will be ready to host the event when the first kick-off happens.

5. Public debate beyond the World Cup

Brazil isn’t just hosting the World Cup, Rio is also hosting the summer Olympic Games in 2016. Brazil is already in the spotlight due to its economic growth. It is part of the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India & China) group of powerhouses that are in the center of our shifting geopolitical landscape. The biggest conversation topics will be the environmental issues of its grow (especially in the Amazon delta), its continuing huge economic disparity between wealthy and poor and its high level of violence including murder and rape. On the other hand Brazil also has a lot to show for itself and its accomplishments will certainly be part of the debate as well. Brazil has been taking non-traditional routes in its national energy policy that continue to be discussed. A little known subject that might move more into the spotlight is Porto Allegre’s participative democracy model where the citizens get to decide directly on how the budget of the city is being spent. What works and what doesn’t might teach others some valuable lessons.

5. How about the American team?

The US boys played with great spirits and hearts in 2010. They’ve been on a rocky ride since then. I very much hope that we will see an upwards trend and that the team can capitalize on the overall increased interest in soccer in the US. We are still far away from the big pro soccer leagues in Europe but the MLS is becoming a little more established with every year of its existence. A new TV contract helped to provide financial planning stability. Coach Klinsmann led Germany to an amazing run in 2006 and hopefully his style can be instilled into this team over the next years. I am clearly in a “I hope and wish” and not in “I expect” territory with this one.

That’s my look into the crystal ball in the early summer of 2012. Placing a bet on who will win in 2014 is nearly as hard as predicting who will become elected as American president in 2016. I wouldn’t put my money on anyone right now nor should you.

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PS:
Of course these are the very personal opinions of the author and don’t necessarily reflect the positions of everyone else on our board.